Buckminster Skeeter: Wanna buy a watch?

Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Deal or No Deal

Have you seen this new game show? Howie Mandel has found work again - this time as the show host. He takes every chance he can get to fire off a pre-planned one liner. He's sporting the bald look now - it's not nearly as good as the latex glove chicken head thing he used to do when he was all coked up in the '80's.

What I like about the show is the girls, of course. The show is a virtual cleavage festival with 24 hot chicks showing their goods throughout the show. That alone is worth my time.

But what I really like is how it showcases the decision making process of corporate America in business transactions.

It works like this. There are 26 cases, held by the cleavage girls, on the floor. The contestant picks one to be theirs. The case is placed next to the contestant. The values in the cases range from $.01 to $1,000,000. So their case could be any value. The contestant picks a few cases and the values are revealed and subsequently eliminated from the possibility of being in the contestants case (of course). The "business man" sits in the dark in a booth behind the stage. He calls down and makes the contestant an offer to buy their case. The contestant can take the offer or keep picking cases to eliminate. Best case scenario is they pick all the cases and eliminate all values except $1,000,000 - thus winning $1,000,000. The business man is obviously using a program of sorts to calculate the odds of the case value and make the 'safest' offer to pay out the least amount of money. If you enjoy the statistical aspects of profit/loss calculation it is a very interesting show. The contestants, however, almost never take the deal hoping to win the largest remaining values - thus showcasing the greedy nature of people. It's fun. I like to try and guess what the offer will be to see if my business instincts are keen.


Blogger mugwump said...

Doesn't sound like my kind of show, yet I responded because I need to know something. Are you screwing around with your blog template occasionally or did I just do too much huffing in Jr. High?

6:18 PM  
Blogger Buckminster Skeeter said...

ch ch ch ch changes.

7:07 PM  
Blogger mugwump said...

That's just friggin' great - now I'll have David Bowie stuck in my head for god knows how long. Thanks a lot.

3:44 AM  
Blogger Dr. Metal said...

I've always been interested in probability and why human beings just can't seem to get it right. There must be nothing evolutionarily advantageous to being able to reason in that way. We screw that stuff up all the time. I'll never forget going to gamble with a certain brother of mine at the roulette wheels. He'd wait until four reds appeared then, boom, he'd bet on black. . . thinking that the odds had changed.

The cool thing about that example is that all of us, no matter our probability training, still feel the tug of that reasoning. Despite its obvious fallaciousness, it still *seems* to be right. It's what I call a blindspot.

4:23 AM  
Blogger Buckminster Skeeter said...

Yes - there is no advanced statistical model that can withstand the 'gut feeling' model of human decision making.

11:40 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bush is forever saying that democracies do not invade other countries and start wars. Well, he did just that. He invaded Iraq, started a war, and killed people. What do you think? Why has bush turned our country from a country of hope and prosperity to a country of belligerence and fear.
Our country is in debt until forever, we don't have jobs, and we live in fear. We have invaded a country and been responsible for thousands of deaths.
The more people that the government puts in jails, the safer we are told to think we are. The real terrorists are wherever they are, but they aren't living in a country with bars on the windows. We are.

9:50 PM  

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